ECONOMY
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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2025
Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula This post presents an update of the economic…
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U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen by Less Than U.S. Data Indicate
Hunter L. Clark With new tariffs on China back in the headlines, this post seeks to offer some perspective on…
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Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics
Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng A key feature of the…
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Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Inflation Trends
Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng Our previous post identified strong…
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Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Ben Hyman Editors note: Since this post was published, we clarified language in the…
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When the Household Pie Shrinks, Who Gets Their Slice?
Jacob Conway, Natalia Fischl-Lanzoni, and Matthew Plosser When households face budgetary constraints, they may encounter bills and debts that they…
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Comparing Apples to Apples: “Synthetic Real‑Time” Estimates of R‑Star
Sophia Cho and John C. Williams Estimates of the natural rate of interest, commonly called “r-star,” garner a great deal…
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Kartik Athreya on His First Year as Research Director of the New York Fed
A year has passed since Kartik Athreya became director of research at the New York Fed. To get some perspective…
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How Censorship Resistant Are Decentralized Systems?
Jon Durfee and Michael Lee Public permissionless blockchains are designed to be censorship resistant, meaning access to the blockchain is…
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Breaking Down Auto Loan Performance
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Debt balances continued to rise at a…
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